If, like me, you were worried about sparse snow in late December, this year has been a load off your mind. Historically the peak of ski season, February, has brought record snow totals and it’s a good time to ask, “How are we doing?”
Evidence shows national recession odds have declined to less than 50 percent due to a strong national labor market and low unemployment, decelerating inflation, and a borrowing environment that senses rate cuts are coming, though they may be months away.
Our local economy had a generally rosy January, measured by tax collections and lodging activity. The most referenced data source, Destimetrics, shows hotel occupancy up 2 percent and slight 1.4% growth in average daily rate ($871) compared to last year. Consumer spending was up, as indicated by Summit County tax revenues: sales tax, option sales tax, transient room tax, and the Recreation/Arts/Parks tax all showed year-over-year increases in January.
Short-term rental listings on Airbnb and Vrbo went up 13.5 percent in January, a big jump that naturally hurt overall occupancy on those platforms, which declined 10.2 percent. Short-term rental daily rates showed a modest slip of 0.4 percent.
Looking ahead, travelers seem fired up this year, according to this month’s Longwoods International Travel Sentiment Study. Ninety-three percent plan trips during the next six months, and they are determined to get out there, cutting corners if necessary to alleviate personal financial concerns.
For example, they told Longwoods that they might cut retail spending to prepare for their trip or reduce recreation and entertainment outlays. They may even drive rather than fly. Why so committed? They say they need the break. The Longwoods’ top reason for 2024 travel is “rest and relaxation,” exceeding last year’s top response of having “a fun time.”
Spending may slow in 2024, but wallets will likely stay open. TSA air passenger volume is 10 percent ahead of pre-pandemic levels this year after increasing 13 percent in 2023.
In Park City, February’s advanced paid occupancy of 66 percent is up 6.4 percent (final, actual occupancy tends to be higher, by the way). Over the next six months, lodging occupancy is up 3.6 percent compared to last year, and the average daily rate is up 1.4 percent to $775. Although overall occupancy dips during our shoulder season, March bookings are up 7.8 percent, while April and May percentage increases are even higher.
Growth in advanced bookings reflects the household prioritization of travel as well as the continued rebuilding of business and group travel. In December/January, our group sales team produced 175 leads (up 8.6 percent), booking over $3.1 million in business and over 6,000 room nights.
Looking at the macroeconomics, there’s a lot to be positive about. It’s worth noting that consumer confidence is up 6.4 percent, the Dow is up 12 percent, job creation is way up (63.4 percent) and national passenger enplanements are up 7.5 percent.
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators was down in January, though the Conference Board reports that six of the 10 indicators were positive for the first time in two years.
Overall, I feel we can be optimistic but watchful over the next six months while we continue to work together, making Park City the best place to live, work, play and visit.
Jennifer Wesselhoff is the president and CEO of the Park City Chamber of Commerce & Visitors Bureau.