Unlike most, the 2034 Winter Olympics will make money. That’s the plan, the promise, the budget.

It’s also the conclusion of the latest economic analysis, released Wednesday. Besides, Utah has done this before.

Modest improvements to already well-maintained, still widely used 2002 Olympic venues will help the state reap higher returns from the 2034 Winter Games, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute report.

Revenue and expenditure projections rise each year to a big peak in 2034, along with the fiscal impacts, while spending consistently falls below income, according to the eight-page evaluation.

Budgets and assessments are notoriously sunny when the big event is farther out on the horizon, in this case a decade. And Olympics Games are infamous for big cost overruns. The widely praised 2002 Winter Games in Utah ran 24% over budget, for instance, according to a report critical of the economics of hosting Olympic Games released Monday by the Council on Foreign Relations.

Budgeting for a Games is a big puzzle, said the bid committee’s CFO, Brett Hopkins, Wednesday morning during a panel discussion moderated by Gardner Institute Director Natalie Gochnour at the Thomas S. Monson Center in Salt Lake City.

“Let’s say a puzzle that has millions and millions of pieces, and those pieces are all little confetti,” he said, drawing laughter. He acknowledged the budgeting has been through dozens of iterations so far and there will be many more in the next decade, assuming Utah wins the bid July 24 to host the 2034 Games, virtually a lock at this point.

Despite the cost overruns and coming just five months after 9/11, the 2002 Winter Games wound up with a surplus of $163.4 million, according to the Gardner Institute in a 2018 economic analysis of the event. Of the surplus, $76 million became an endowment for the Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation to operate and maintain Olympic facilities such as the Utah Olympic Park, and with them develop Olympians who no doubt will compete here in 2034.

The Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games has budgeted $31.2 million, out of $4.1 billion in total projected direct spending, for capital investments — $23 million of that for upgrading the Utah Olympic Park in Park City and $3.5 million for Soldier Hollow in Midway to go with $4.5 million for the Utah Olympic Oval in Salt Lake City.

The Gardner Institute’s economic impact projections for the 2034 Games are gaudy — $6.6 billion in output of goods and services; over 42,000 job-years of employment, counting by one job for one year; $3.9 billion in state GDP, or the total value of goods and services; $2.5 billion in personal income.

The Gardner analysis in 2018 measured the 2002 Games’ impact at $6.1 billion in output, 45,000 job-years of employment, and $3 billion in personal income. GDP was not listed in that report. The report released Wednesday bumped those numbers up to $7.5 billion in output, 45,700 job-years, and $3.7 billion in personal income, using 2023 dollar values.

Building the athletic facilities, vs. upgrading them, accounts for much of the output difference between the 2002 and 2034 Games.

Different studies of economic trends yield varying figures, but the Gardner evaluations at least broadly measure apples to apples.

The reports also noted the continuing use of the Olympic facilities after the Games, perhaps the most visible legacy and development tool for Winter Olympic athletes.

Catherine Raney Norman, chairwoman of the Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games, observed that nearly 50% of America’s winter Olympians have direct ties to Utah as a result.

Also, the Winter Games have seen a 40% increase in the number of events since 2002, she said.

“The sports are continuing to evolve, and I think that will continue over the next 10 years,” she said.

Colin Hilton, CEO of the Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation, attributed continuing popular support in surveys of Utahns for the Olympics to the Olympic facilities and programs that have continued long past the 2002 Games.

“I would suggest there’s a strong argument that the large support number, 80 percent, is a reflection of our approach to legacy,” he said. “That we’re not just having these facilities used by elite athletes only. That they are because they engage the community in that the general public has either had a child through one of our programs, or they’ve come to one of our sporting events, or they use this facility for a variety of uses, just to come and entertain people from out of town.”

“I don’t think any of us thought we’d have this level of impact 20 years down the road, right?” said Raney Norman.

“So we have a debt, and I think there’s this mentality of service of giving back,” she said. “We’ve started that from day one. We’ll continue to do that as well. Because that’s who we are.”

Meantime, back to the budget and what like 2002 delivered is projected as surplus: $260 million, in 2034 dollars. That would make a big difference in legacy and development for whatever Games may follow 2034’s for Salt Lake City-Utah and Park City.

The full report is here: